Montenegro at a Crossroads: How the International Community Can Support Democratic Renewal Post-2020 Elections

The August 2020 elections in Montenegro saw the rise of clerical-nationalist forces, marking a shift toward authoritarianism heavily influenced by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. His strategic control over Montenegro through pro-Serbian political movements and the Serbian Orthodox Church led many to fear for Montenegro’s sovereignty and democratic future. The current regime, increasingly authoritarian in nature, has used nationalism and religious rhetoric to consolidate power and align the country more closely with Serbia and Russia, distancing it from its historical trajectory toward the European Union (EU) and NATO.

However, recent developments, particularly the significant results of pro-European parties in Podgorica and Kotor in September 2024 elections, have opened a new chapter in Montenegro’s political landscape. These results offer a critical opportunity for the international community to help Montenegro reverse its authoritarian drift and reaffirm its commitment to European integration and democratic governance.

The Rise of Authoritarianism in Montenegro

Montenegro’s government has become dominated by clerical-nationalist factions that openly support Serbian (and Russian) interests. The Serbian Orthodox Church, under Vučić's influence, played a critical role in mobilizing voters and legitimizing pro-Serbian, anti-Western narratives, undermining Montenegro’s sovereign political identity. With this victory, authoritarian tendencies have taken root, threatening democratic institutions and freedom of the press while pushing the country further away from its pro-European stance.

The government that emerged from the 2020 elections has systematically weakened civil liberties, eroded the independence of the judiciary, and stifled opposition voices. Vučić's influence over Montenegrin politics has been palpable, with Serbian-controlled media spreading nationalist propaganda, further entrenching the clerical-nationalist government.

Signs of Democratic Renewal in Podgorica and Kotor

Despite the authoritarian trends, the results of the recent local elections in Podgorica and Kotor have given hope to Montenegro’s pro-European and pro-democratic forces. The Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), now free from the controversial legacy of past, secured 30% of the vote in Podgorica. In collaboration with other pro-European parties, it stands a chance to reclaim control over the capital and restore its focus on EU integration and democratic reforms.

These victories signal that the nationalist and authoritarian narrative may be losing its grip, particularly in urban areas where a significant portion of the electorate still favors a European future for Montenegro. Although the political calculus remains complex, with potential coalitions between nationalist and moderate forces still in play, there is now space for the international community to step in and bolster Montenegro's pro-democratic parties.

The Role of the International Community

The recent successes of pro-democratic forces in Podgorica and Kotor present a crucial opportunity for the European Union, the United States, and other democratic allies to provide meaningful support to Montenegro's democratic trajectory. However, this support must be grounded in unwavering commitment to the principles of democracy and the protection of human rights. In recent times, we have seen the international community largely focus on anti-corruption efforts, yet this approach has often inadvertently empowered corrupt, anti-European, and pro-Serbian/Russian politicians. Rather than truly emancipating Montenegrin society, such strategies have, in some cases, undermined democratic values and enabled those with authoritarian leanings to gain power.

To genuinely help Montenegro move toward a democratic and European future, the international community must:

Stand Firm on Democratic Principles and Human Rights: True support for Montenegro’s democratic renewal demands that the international community prioritizes democracy, the rule of law, and human rights above all else. It is essential that external support is not manipulated to serve the interests of politicians who oppose European integration and promote authoritarianism.

Encourage Genuine Dialogue and Meaningful Reforms: The EU must offer diplomatic and technical assistance to those genuinely working to strengthen democratic institutions in Montenegro. Facilitating dialogue across political divides and encouraging electoral reforms should empower voters and restore their faith in democratic processes.

Support Media Independence and Freedom of Expression: Authoritarian regimes thrive on controlling narratives, and Montenegro is no exception. The international community must bolster independent media and ensure journalists are free from government intimidation. A well-informed society is essential for sustaining democracy, and media freedom is a pillar of that.

Strengthen Genuine Civil Society Organizations: While native civil society remains a critical defense against authoritarianism, international support must be carefully directed toward organizations that truly advocate for transparency, human rights, and democratic governance, and are not aligned with nationalist or anti-European agendas. These groups should receive funding, training, and platforms to promote their causes effectively.

Ensure Free and Fair Elections: As Montenegro approaches national elections, international oversight is crucial. The EU, OSCE, and other bodies must ensure that elections are free from manipulation, external interference from Serbia or Russia, and any form of intimidation. The integrity of Montenegro’s electoral process will be a litmus test for the country’s democratic future.

In sum, the international community must not repeat past mistakes. If it genuinely seeks to assist Montenegro, it must stand unequivocally behind democratic principles and the protection of human rights, ensuring that the country’s future is aligned with European and democratic values, rather than falling prey to the influence of authoritarian actors.

Challenges Ahead

While the good results in Podgorica and Kotor are promising, there are still significant hurdles to overcome. Pro-Serbian and pro-Russian factions remain influential, and their ability to mobilize nationalist sentiment cannot be underestimated. The coalition-building process in Podgorica is still uncertain, and political alliances are fluid. The Serbian Orthodox Church and nationalist political leaders are likely to continue exerting pressure on Jakov Milatović and others to prevent any significant alignment with pro-European forces.

Moreover, international actors must be cautious in their approach. Heavy-handed or poorly timed interventions could backfire, strengthening nationalist narratives of foreign interference. A subtle, yet firm approach is needed, with an emphasis on supporting Montenegro’s own democratic forces rather than imposing solutions from the outside.

Now is the time for the EU, US, and other democratic nations to seize this opportunity. By supporting Montenegro’s pro-democratic forces and helping to rebuild trust in its institutions, the international community can play a key role in ensuring that Montenegro returns to the path of European integration, democratic governance, and regional stability.