By Vladan Raznatovic (@vraznatovic)
The escalating hybrid threats in the Balkans and broader Mediterranean raise critical questions about regional stability and European security. As Russian malign influence penetrates deeper into NATO territories and Serbian proxies challenge territorial integrity, the EU faces an urgent need to protect its strategic Mediterranean periphery.
Western observers tracking the surge of destabilizing activities across the Balkans since 2022 may feel overwhelmed by the complexity. Talk to them about Russian cultural centers, RT Balkan propaganda networks, or Republika Srpska's separatist institutions, and the gravity of the situation becomes unmistakable.
This crescendo of hybrid warfare represents a direct challenge to European security architecture, particularly as Russian influence operates through established proxies and exploits historical fault lines. The old assumption that NATO membership alone provides security guarantees is being tested by sophisticated information operations, political subversion, and separatist movements.
Many Western analysts have underestimated the scope and coordination of these challenges; many regional actors have proven vulnerable to external manipulation and internal divisions. The post-Cold War order based on democratic consolidation and European integration is under sustained assault. The question is whether the EU and NATO can respond effectively to protect their Mediterranean flank.
Few are eager to acknowledge the scale of the challenge. Like it or not, it seems easier to focus on distant conflicts than confront the hybrid warfare unfolding on Europe's doorstep.
Ignoring these threats would be catastrophic. The region may appear fragmented, but coordinated malign influence campaigns have demonstrated remarkable effectiveness in exploiting existing vulnerabilities. The constellation of Russian operations, Serbian proxy activities, and separatist movements represents a systematic challenge to European security that demands immediate attention.
The penetration of Russian influence since 2022 illustrates this coordinated approach. RT Balkan was officially launched on 15 November 2022, marketed as an online broadcasting service in the Serbian language aimed at providing "an alternative perspective on regional and world events", circumventing EU sanctions on Russian media. Russian propaganda penetrates Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina through Russian-funded portals, local media and social media, creating an information ecosystem that undermines democratic discourse and European integration narratives. This influence extends beyond information warfare to direct political subversion.
Bosnia and Herzegovina faces the most acute crisis, with Republika Srpska moving to establish independent institutions, including its own electoral commission in January 2024, seen as a step toward secession. Milorad Dodik has become more aggressive in asserting separatist ambitions for the region since 2023, exploiting Russia's war in Ukraine as a model for changing borders through force. Bosnia and Herzegovina is on the verge of falling apart as Republika Srpska threatens to break away, with implications that extend far beyond the country's borders.
Even NATO member Montenegro faces significant penetration of malign influence. Montenegro faces consistent hybrid threats from Russian and foreign actors, with Russia wanting to create fear and undermine support for Ukraine. Despite joining NATO in 2017, Russian influence in Montenegro had been using the Serbian nationalistic parties and the Orthodox Church to promote pan-Slavism by exploiting cultural and religious issues. The persistence of these networks within a NATO member state highlights the sophistication of hybrid warfare operations.
Serbia's role as a primary conduit for Russian influence cannot be understated. RYBAR announced the establishment of a media school in the Western Balkans, with teams from Serbia and Republika Srpska involved in educational activities, demonstrating the coordinated nature of influence operations. Serbia's refusal to align with EU sanctions and its continued energy dependence on Russia provide Moscow with leverage that extends throughout the region.
The Mediterranean dimension adds another layer of complexity. The EU's inability to secure its southern and southeastern periphery creates vulnerabilities that extend beyond the Balkans. These weaknesses in the Mediterranean shoreline represent potential entry points for hybrid operations, migration weaponization, and energy blackmail that could destabilize the entire European project.
What Europe needs now is recognition that the Balkans and Mediterranean represent a single strategic theater where hybrid warfare threatens core European interests. The recent escalation since 2022 demonstrates that previous approaches based on gradual integration and soft power are insufficient against coordinated malign influence campaigns.
A new European security paradigm must emerge that treats hybrid threats as seriously as conventional military challenges. This requires enhanced intelligence sharing, coordinated sanctions enforcement, media literacy programs, and direct support for democratic institutions under attack. The EU must also acknowledge that protecting the Mediterranean shoreline requires addressing the sources of instability in the Balkans, not treating them as separate challenges.
European leaders must embrace this expanded vision of Mediterranean security that includes the Balkans as a critical component. The lessons of the past three years make clear that hybrid warfare operates across traditional geographic boundaries and exploits any weakness in the European security architecture.
The stakes could not be higher. Montenegro's NATO membership has been a blessing and a curse for its security situation, with the country facing a spectrum of issues that affect its stability and sovereignty as well as regional security dynamics. If hybrid warfare can penetrate NATO territory and destabilize alliance members, the entire post-Cold War security order is at risk.
Unlike the gradual erosion of democratic norms elsewhere, European leaders still have the opportunity to address these challenges before they metastasize further. They know where the threats originate and have the tools to counter them. The question is whether they will act with the urgency that the situation demands, recognizing that the Mediterranean and Balkans represent a single strategic space that requires coordinated defense.