The Western's attempt to please Aleksandar Vucic, the leader of Serbia, has some serious problems that we should be concerned about, especially considering Russia's increasing influence in the Western Balkans.
One major mistake is the belief that if we support Vucic's hold on power in Serbia and give him political influence in important Western Balkan countries like Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina, we can prevent him from aligning with Russia. This belief is morally questionable and not a smart strategy. Thinking that Vucic's government, if given control over BiH and Montenegro, would defend Western interests against Russia is too optimistic. Results of three years appeasment strategy are vey tin and for us in Balkans is difficult to understand that Serbia exporting arms to Ukrain is enough to allow Vucic to take over NATO country Montenegro and make it replica of Serbia.
Firstly, Vucic's government has strong ties to Russian interests, and they have similar goals. Thanks to the West's "appeasement strategy," they have made significant progress. While they distract with issues like negotiations over Kosovo and arms deals with Ukraine, both Serbia and Russia are really focused on expanding their influence, especially by gaining access to the Adriatic Sea.
If we take a closer look at the Serbian government, we can see their close connections to Russian interests, and this is also true for most opposition parties. What's even more concerning is that a large part of the population sees Vladimir Putin as a hero. Vucic has created an atmosphere of hostility towards the West, where Russia is seen as the only savior. It's reasonable to assume that Vucic has fostered this atmosphere not only for short-term benefits but also because of his strategic beliefs and long-term goals.
Western reports often mention Russia's significant influence in Serbia, but they miss an important point: Serbia is a crucial tool for Russia to spread its political influence across the Balkans. Russia's control over Serbia's secret services allows them to have indirect negative influence. That's why they probably invested in gaining control in Serbia in the first place. So, it's not accurate to say that Russian influence in Montenegro is low while Serbian influence is high. In reality, their interests align, and they work together to advance their agendas, especially when it comes to gaining control over the Montenegrin coast. For them, many pro-Serbian politicians in Montenegro are simply assets that can be easily used for Russian interests.
The situation with Montenegro's new government formation is causing worries because the pro-European Montenegrin parties are not involved. This is concerning because it's hard to believe that pro-Serbian politicians and parties such as PES and Democrats will go against the interests of Vucic and Russia, both in the short term and in the long term.
It's important to highlight the ethical aspect of this issue. It is not fair and can be dangerous to marginalize Montenegrins in their own country. The presence of politicians and parties in Montenegro who were brought in by the Church of Serbia and nationalist Serbian parties makes things more complicated. These groups will prioritize their own agendas over Montenegro's commitment to NATO. Although might looks impossible (to remaind as such Brexit was unimagible) if there is no pro-european Montenegrian in new government we might see Russian millitary ships in Boka Bay in no so far future.
The concern is whether parties such PES, Democratsm and SNP will protect NATO's interests in Montenegro. Given their affiliations and history, this is a valid point of contention. In this delicate geopolitical situation, it is crucial for NATO ambassadors to closely watch the situation and support policies that respect Montenegro's independence while promoting stability and cooperation in the region.