By Vladan Raznatovic (@vraznatovic)
The recent political developments in Montenegro, including the overt control exerted by the Serbian Orthodox Church and President Vučić over leading Montenegrin politicians, underscore the urgent need for the European Union to adopt a more decisive stance on democracy in the Western Balkans. As external influences—primarily from Serbia and Russia—gain strength, Montenegro finds itself at a pivotal crossroads, one that could define its trajectory for future generations. This moment also highlights the necessity of finally overcoming the lingering authoritarian legacy of Milošević and Vučić, ensuring that the nations of the Western Balkans embrace democratic norms to preserve stability and advance beyond authoritarian and expansionist agendas.
Growing External Pressures from Serbia and Russia
Reshaping Montenegro’s Political Landscape
Recent events suggest that Serbia and Russia are intensifying efforts to shape Montenegro’s political, economic, and social environment. These undertakings will profoundly affect Montenegrin sovereignty and citizens’ well-being if successful. For Montenegro—and the international community—it is paramount to recognize both the nature and the potential impact of these pressures.
Strategic Goals of Serbia and Russia
Political Regression
Mounting evidence indicates that Serbia aims to realign Montenegro’s political system with ethnocentric and autocratic models. This shift would weaken democratic institutions—such as parliament, free elections, and independent courts—and erode the foundation of a viable political opposition. Proposed constitutional amendments, championed by figures like Andrija Mandić, risk fueling ethnic fragmentation and heightened tensions, undermining Montenegro’s social fabric and destabilizing the region.Isolation from Western Allies
A parallel objective is to isolate Montenegro from its key Western partners, notably the EU. By fomenting regional disputes—particularly those involving Croatia—and distancing Montenegro from Euro-Atlantic frameworks, Serbia reduces Montenegro’s capacity to act independently on the global stage. For instance, the resolution on Jasenovac seems designed to strain relations between Montenegro and Croatia, weakening regional cooperation.Economic Leverage and Resource Control
Serbia also employs economic tactics to weaken Montenegro’s economy, already targeting vital sectors like aviation, tourism, and infrastructure. Alleged money-laundering operations tied to Serbian political figures hint at a wider plan to control Montenegro’s financial levers. Unchecked, these strategies would foster rising unemployment, overstretched public services, and the potential collapse of healthcare and pension systems, leaving the country vulnerable to external manipulation.
Potential Consequences for Montenegrin Citizens
Democratic Erosion
Should Montenegro’s political framework be molded to reflect autocratic norms, ethnic and religious divisions would likely intensify. Civil liberties would be curtailed, and power consolidated among a small elite beholden to foreign interests. This dismantling of democratic checks and balances undermines transparency, accountability, and legal certainty, ultimately placing citizens at the mercy of external agendas.Economic Hardship
Ongoing economic destabilization could profoundly affect Montenegrins’ quality of life. Rising unemployment, reduced wages, and cuts in public investment—particularly in healthcare and education—would significantly erode living standards. Historically, regimes that limit democratic freedoms also divert state funds to loyalist institutions, including a dominant church or state-affiliated media, rather than prioritizing essential social services.Social Fragmentation
Deliberately provoking ethnic and religious tensions threatens to unravel Montenegro’s communal harmony. The subsequent instability can lead to social unrest, making sustaining the peace Montenegro has enjoyed increasingly difficult. Growing rifts further invite outside influence and bolster authoritarian tactics that exploit polarization.Loss of Sovereignty
Ultimately, unchecked interference by Serbia and Russia imperils Montenegro’s sovereignty, potentially relegating the country to a subordinate status similar to past historical arrangements. Domestic and foreign policies alike could be molded by external prerogatives rather than by the needs and aspirations of the Montenegrin populace.
Why the EU Must Act Now
Defending Democracy for Stability
The EU can no longer remain on the sidelines. Failure to act decisively in Montenegro—and the broader Western Balkans—could erode years of progress toward democracy and regional cooperation. It is also essential to recognize that autocracies offer only short-term stability, often relying on domestic and external conflicts to perpetuate power. The credibility of the European project in the Balkans hangs in the balance, particularly if it fails to prevent further entrenchment of authoritarian influence.
Separating EU Accession from National Identity Crises
While the EU’s primary focus is on Montenegro’s accession and reforms, a hands-off stance regarding national identity issues leaves a vacuum that foreign actors readily exploit. It is imperative to cultivate “citizen states,” undercutting nationalist agendas that can destabilize the entire region. In particular, the concept of a clerical-fascist “Serbian Svet” poses a threat to every neighbor of Serbia. By acknowledging the significance of Montenegrin sovereignty and identity, the EU is better positioned to promote democratic governance and deter any further autocratic encroachment.
The Importance of Civic Engagement
Informed Citizens as the First Line of Defense
Active, well-informed citizens constitute the strongest bulwark against manipulation. Montenegrins must seek credible information, critically assess the actions of politicians and institutions, and reject populist narratives rooted in quick fixes or nationalist fervor.
Supporting Democratic Institutions
No democracy can thrive without vigilant civic oversight. Citizens should support initiatives that foster transparency, accountability, and the rule of law. These principles are not mere abstractions; they are indispensable safeguards of national interests and help build public trust in governance.
Active Political Participation
Voting and civic action remain central to maintaining Montenegro’s democratic path. In a region threatened by normalizing autocratic tendencies, robust citizen engagement ensures Montenegrins retain ownership of their political fate—thereby reinforcing the EU’s broader objectives of bolstering democracy and stability across the Balkans.
Conclusion
Montenegro stands at a pivotal crossroads, where the decisions made by its citizens—and by the EU—will determine the country’s future direction. If the EU fails to commit swiftly and firmly to protecting democracy in the Western Balkans, decades of progress may unravel, and efforts to foster lasting peace will be imperiled.
For Montenegrins, clarity, resolve, and democratic involvement are paramount. Only through collective vigilance and devotion to fundamental democratic values can Montenegro preserve its sovereignty, repel harmful external pressures, and solidify its standing as an independent and prosperous European nation.